22 August 2021
By Roger Jones
roger@TheCork.ie
Soccer
6 games without a loss, and according to rowdie.co.uk there is almost 80% chance to extend it to 7. On September 3rd Cork City is expected to be the top dog in a home game against their “First Division’s table neighbours” from Athlone Town.
Looking at the head to head results between Cork City and Athlone Town it is obvious that the 20.15% for the Athlone’s Town away win seems to be a fair calculation, but let’s not be fooled. From the last 8 encounters between Cork City and Athlone Town, 3 ended up with a high win (7:0, 6:1, 7:0) of Cork City. So it must be a clear match, right? Wrong!
All the mentioned results are from 2011, 2012 and 2017 and have no real relevance for the next game. Both of the team squads are basically completely different compared to those times.
What is the right benchmark to give a valid football prediction? Looking at the latest results from 2021, we see a home loss from April (0:1) and an away win (2:0). Both these results are sending a clear message that the home win of Cork City is far away from a sure bet. The position of both teams in the First Division’s is also speaking a clear language. Athlone Town is not a real unergod and when picking a bet market you should really think twice.
But, there is some recent news and updates. From the beginning of August we have Declan Coleman being the first coach of City and looking at the latest performance against Cabinteely, we have some high expectations from the match against the rivals from Athlone Town.
What do the mathematical predictions say about the probabilities?
The initial numbers calculated by the mathematical football predictions algorithm state the following: Home win of Cork City 57.41%, Draw 22.43%, Away win of Athlone Town 20.15%. Both teams to score 53.79%, Over 2.5 goals 54.91% and the most likely exact score is the 1:1 draw reaching the probability of 10.61%.
Football predictions are one point of the view, the most important part are the odds that we compare it to. We expect the crowds betting on the home win, which will result in lowering the odds in favor of a draw and first of all the away win of Athlone Town. We recommend not to bet on a home win if odds drop below 4/5 (decimal 1.8). Based on the lates – low score head to head results, we rather expect a defensive match. The fair odds for under 2.5 goals market are being calculated 61/50 (decimal 2.22), so make sure not to go under.
